2/25/97
Cable Modem Sales Projections Vary
Customers Satisfied with Online Services, Excepting Road Runner
Telewest To Test Bay Networks (formerly LANcity) Modems
Jupiter Telecom to Test Terayon Cable Modems in Japan
TCI Launches Cable Telephony, Cable Modem Service & Digital in Arlington Heights, IL
Jupiter Telecom Awards Contract to Nortel
Scientific Atlanta to Acquire Arcodan
Videotron To Aggressively Pursue Telephony
MCNS to Present Specs at NCTA Show
Tellabs Acquires Trelcom Oy
Adelphia Launches One Way Cable Modem Service in Palm Beach, Florida
Cox Applies to Become a Cable Telephony Provider in Rhode Island
Continental Cablevision will Replace ATM with SONET and IP
Lucent and Furukawa Create Joint Venture to Sell Optical Equipment
Cable Modem Sales Projections Vary
In a new technology based industry, it is impossible to determine accurate sales projections. In the cable modem industry, the task is more difficult than usual. In order to project, you must, at least, know:
How many systems are two way capable
How many plan to buy
Know the manufacturing capabilities
How popular the Internet will become
How popular competitive technologies will become
Be able to envision the emergence of future applications for data communications over cable
Etc.
Nevertheless, the projections, or better yet, predictions are inevitable.
In 1996, there were between 70,000 - 100,000 cable modems shipped. Most of these modems were shipped by Bay Networks (formerly LANcity), Motorola, and Zenith. Bay Networks (formerly LANcity), which shipped 35,000 units in 1996, expects to ship more than 150,000 modems in 1997.
Here are few industry predictions:
From Forward Concepts:
1997: 1.3 million shipped
2000: 4 million shipped
From Lucent Technologies:
1997: 500,000 shipped
2000: 3 million shipped
From Hitachi:
2001: 6 million
From Semico Research
2000: 500,000 shipped
From OVUM
1997: 370,000 shipped
1999: 3.2 million shipped
Does these projections make things clearer?
Forward Concepts
http://www.fwdconcepts.com
Ovum
http://www.ovum.com
Semico Research
http://www.semico.com
Customers Satisfied with Online Services, Excepting Road Runner
Recently, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell Inc. completed a study of customer satisfaction with the major online services used by cable operators to deliver high speed Internet access. The results showed a very high satisfaction rate with @Home, Highway 1, and Optimum Online. However, Road Runner fared poorly and satisfaction was found to be particularly low in the Akron/Canton, Ohio area.
The study, which collected feedback from 10 users of each online service, asked cable modem users about real throughput, ease of installation, customer service, reliability, overall satisfaction and their willingness to recommend the service.
Users indicated throughput rates ranging from 8 Kbps to 1 Mbps, with average throughput between 40Kbps - 500Kbps. One of the Road Runner users stated that he would frequently return to his 28.8 dialup modem because throughput rates were greater. Though the throughput rates did not live up to the hype, most users reported that they were very satisfied and impressed with the data rates.
Road Runner received extensive criticism for their lack of customer service. The study quoted one user as stating that one word summed up Time Warner's customer service: "none." Apparently, customer service had to be contacted at an out of state location and reps were unfamiliar with the service. @Home,
Highway 1 and Optimum Online users werevery satisfied with customer service and many rated it as "excellent."
Other areas of the study followed in suit with customer service. Users were very satisfied with all of the online services excepting Road Runner.
@Home
http://www.home.net
Highway 1
http://www.highway1.com
Optimum Online
http://www.optimumonline.com
Road Runner
http://pathfinder.com/@@PMP3CgQAGXKvGVSa/rdrun/
Telewest To Deploy Bay Networks (formerly LANcity) Modems
Telewest, the UK's largest cable provider will be deploying Bay Networks (formerly LANcity) cable modems in a trial that will be conducted in Southern England beginning in February. The agreement calls for 100 LCP cable modems.
The field trial is a second phase test of data communications over cable using Bay Networks (formerly LANcity) modems. In 1996, Telewest tested Bay Networks (formerly LANcity) modems connecting high schools and universities to the Internet in England and Scotland.
Telewest
http://www.telewest.co.uk
Bay Networks (formerly LANcity)
http://www.baynetworks.com
Jupiter Telecom & Sumitomo to Test Terayon Cable Modems
Jupiter Telecom & Sumitomo will conduct a field trial in March at a cable system in Urawaka, Japan using Terayon's cable modems. The trial, which will provide high speed connectivity to the Internet will begin with 50 cable modems.
The cable modems will support 14 Mbps both upstream and downstream.
Though the offering will not be connected to an online service, Sumitomo plan to provide local interactive multimedia content and promote use of a Japanese multimedia service known as ClubWeb. ClubWeb features online karaoke tournaments and live broadcasts.
Currently, Terayon has orders for over 100,000 cable modems from several different systems. Though specific systems are not disclosed, Terayon is reporting that they will be providing modems to systems in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia.
Jupiter Telecom
http://www.jupiter.co.jp
Sumitomo
http://www.sumitomo.co.jp
Terayon
http://www.terayon.com
ClubWeb
http://www.clubweb.or.jp
TCI Launches Cable Telephony, Cable Modem Service & Digital in Arlington Heights, IL
This month, TCI launched digital television, @Home cable modem service and cable telephony in Arlington Heights, IL. The system is offering 130 video channels and 40 channels of digital music. Telephony is provided via TCI's service known as PeopleLink. The cable modem service uses Motorola's cable modems.
TCI
http://www.tci.com
@Home
http://www.home.net
Motorola
http://www.mot.com/multimedia/
Jupiter Telecom Awards Contract to Nortel for Telephony Equipment
Jupiter Telecom has chosen Nortel Japan to supply telephony equipment that will be used in a cable telephony service in Suginami, Japan. The five year contract calls for Nortel to supply their DMS-100 digital switch, DMS-10 digital switch, and Arris Interactive's Cornerstone Voice cable telephony system.
The DMS-100 series is capable of accommodating 100,000 subscribers and the DMS-10 will support 12,000 lines. Nortel has already installed over 100 million DMS lines worldwide and more than 800 in Japan.
Jupiter Telecom is a joint venture between TCI and Sumitomo. They operate cable systems throughout Japan, passing more than three million homes.
The Suginami cable system has been testing cable telephony since December of 1996 and plans to make the service commercial this summer.
Jupiter Telecom
http://www.jupiter.co.jp
Nortel
http://www.nortel.com
Scientific Atlanta to Acquire Arcodan
Scientific Atlanta has signed an agreement to purchase Arcodan, a Danish manufacturer of headend systems, optical and RF distribution equipment. Arcodan, employing 270 people, distributes their products throughout Europe. Arcodan reported revenues of more than $32 million for 1996.
Scientific Atlanta
http://www.sciatl.com
Videotron To Aggressively Pursue Telephony
According to Groupe Videotron Ltd, President, Claude Chagnon, Videotron plans to aggressively
pursue becoming a competitive telephony provider in Canada.
Videotron
http://www.videotron.ca
MCNS to Present Specs at NCTA Show
MCNS is expected to present final specifications on their cable modem standards work. RF specs have been completed and the group has finished taking comments. Only slight adjustments were made to the original specification based on the comments they received.
MCNS
http://www.cablemodem.com
Tellabs Acquires Trelcom Oy
Tellabs announced that they had acquired the Finnish company, Trelcom Oy for $3,044,000. Trelcom Oy manufactures DSL enabling technology including ASICs and digital signal processing software. For their fiscal year 1996, Trelcom Oy reported nearly $1.5 million in sales.
Tellabs
http://www.tellabs.com
Trelcom Oy
http://www.trelcom.fi
Cox Applies to be a Cable Telephony Provider in Rhode Island
Cox Communications has announced that they recently applied to the Rhode Island Public Utilities Commission to become a statewide telephone carrier.
Cox is applying to become the third telephony provider in the state. Currently, telephone service is provided by NYNEX, Brooks Fiber Communications [BFC] and Teleport Communications Group [TCG]. Brooks serves both homes and businesses and TCG serves only the business community.
Cox owns a 30% stake in TCG.
Cox Communications
http://www.cox.com
Teleport Communications Group
http://www.tcg.com
Brooks Fiber Communications
http://www.brooks-fiber.com
NYNEX
http://www.nynex.com
Adelphia Launches One Way Cable Modem Service in Palm Beach, Florida
Last week, Adelphia launched their Power Link commercial cable modem service in North Palm Beach County, Florida. The one way service features NextLevel's telco return cable modem known as SURFboard.
Initially, Power Link will be available to 125,000 homes in North Palm Beach County. Within the next six months, the service will be expanded to cover all 600,000 homes that the system passes. The Adelphia system services Palm Beach, Martin, St. Lucia and Dade Counties.
Adelphia will be offering Power Link at $34.95 per month for cable subscribers and $44.95 for non-subscribers. There will be a one time installation fee of $99.95.
Adelphia has been testing cable modems since December of 1996.
Adelphia
http://www.adelphia.net
NextLevel (General Instrument)
http://www.gi.com
Power Link
http://www.adelphia.net/powerlink/
Continental Cablevision Will Replace ATM with SONET and IP
After two years of using ATM packet switches in a Boston suburbs system, Continental Cablevision plans to replace the technology with SONET. Continental is upgrading from a 2 Gbps to a 10 Gbps backbone. Company representatives have stated that Continental does not have confidence that ATM can effectively manage and monitor as well as SONET. As a result of the replacement, switching will become based on IP.
Continental Cablevision
http://www.continental.com
Lucent and Furukawa Create Joint Venture to Sell Optical Equipment
Lucent Technologies and Furukawa Electric Company have joined together to create a second joint venture known as FiNet Technologies. The two companies will merge their optical technologies and aim to become another optical equipment vendor.
Lucent Technologies
http://www.lucent.com
Furukawa Electric
http://www.furukawa.co.jp
© Copyright 2000 Gecko Research & Publishing
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