03/08/02
1. Market Studies Show Dialup Stagnant, Broadband Booming
2. Open Access Update
3. U.S. House Passes Bill Deregulating Bells
4. Comcast Migrates @Home Subs; Ceases Web Tracking
5. Coresma Introduces USB DOCSIS 1.0 Cable Modem
6. Sunrise Adds Modules to Networking Testing Solution
7. Com21 Developing CMTS with Broadcom's Propane
8. Gateway to Sell Charter's Cable Modem Service
9. Terayon Extends Supplier Agreement with i-Cable
10. San Bruno Cable Using Core's Provisioning OSS
11. AT&T to Break Even on Cable Telephony This Quarter
12. Cable-Modems.Org Publishes Article on Uncapping
13. Conway Deploying Mtorola's CMTS in Arkansas
14. Shaw & Rogers Launch Low Bandwidth Service Options
15. Charter Ends 2001 with 645,000 Cable Modem Subs
16. Cablecom Introduces DOCSIS 1.1 Mgmt & Provisioning
1. Market Studies Show Dialup Stagnant, Broadband Booming
According to a series of recently released broadband and access market
studies, the broadband access market has grown significantly over the past
year, while dialup access growth has halted. At the end of 2001, global
DSL subscriptions had grown to a range between 16 and 19 million (U.S.:
around 4 million, Canada: around 1.25 million), while cable modem
subscriptions increased to somewhere between 12 and 13 million (U.S.:
around 6.6 million, Canada: around 1.7 million). DSL leads the broadband
access market worldwide but in North America, and particularly in the U.S.,
cable has a stronger position. AT the end of 2001, Cable passed 70% of
U.S. homes with data services compared to 45% of homes passed by DSL.
DSL Subscriptions by Region 2001 (Source: Point Topic)
------------------------------------------------------
Asia Pacific: 7,949,000 (87.7% residential)
North America: 5,510,000 (77.4% residential)
Western Europe: 4,232,000 (83.2% residential)
South & South East Asia: 499,000 (75% residential)
Latin America: 380,000 (71.3% residential)
Eastern Europe: 53,000 (60.4% residential)
Middle East & Africa: 48,000 (77% residential)
Subs for Leading North American Broadband Service Providers (Source: IGI)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cable Modem Q4 2001
ATT 100,000 1,500,000
Charter 99,100 645,000
Comcast 155,400 946,500
Rogers 56,000 478,600
Cox 104,000 883,499
Time Warner 256,000 1,956,000
Total 770,500 6,409,599
DSL Q4 2001
BellSouth 157,500 620,500
Covad 5,000 351,000
Bell Canada 132,000 757,000
Qwest 43,000 448,000
SBC 146,000 1,333,000
Verizon 200,000 1,200,000
total 683,500 4,709,500
Growth of the broadband access market was very strong in the first half of
2001, before the terrorist events in September. The FCC reported a 36%
increase in broadband subscriptions in the U.S. from January to June 2001,
with broadband subscriptions increasing to 9.6 million (7.8 million
residential and SME). In June, 7% of U.S. households had a broadband
connection, up from 4.7% in January. Cable modem service penetration grew
from 3% in Q'1 of 2000 to 8% in June 2001. Wireless and satellite
connections, still trivial at around 200,000 subs, grew 73% over the first
half of last year. Much of the growth of the broadband access market can
be attributed to the development of the infrastructure in the U.S.
According to the FCC, in June 2001, 78% of U.S. zip codes were passed by a
broadband service provider and 58% by multiple providers.
The dialup market is a different story. According to Telecommunications
Reports International (TRI), the total online access market in the U.S.
grew 52% in 2000 but grew only 1% in 2001 - from 68.6 million users to 69.3
million users. DSL and cable modem services grew 62% (cable modem: 58%,
DSL: 68%) for the year in the U.S., claiming a 15% share of the total
online market. However, the dialup sector has gone south. The free ISP
market lost more than 10 million subs in 2001, leaving United (merger of
NetZero and Juno) as the only significant provider remaining.
U.S. Online Access Market 2001 (Source: TRI)
--------------------------------------------
Provider Type Subscriber Q'4 Comments
Paid Dialup ISP 54,481,752 (MSN: 18% growth, Prodigy: 9% growth,
EarthLink & CompuServe: 0% growth)
Free ISPs 4,140,000
Cable Modems 6,626,963
DSL 3,967,000 (13% growth)
Satellite 141,000 (24% growth)
total 69,356,715 (2% growth, 4% loss in Q'3)
Broadband may only represent 15% of the online access market in the U.S.,
but a report from Nielsen/NetRatings claims that broadband users
represented 51% or 727 million hours online during January of this year, a
64% increase in online time from a year before. Online time by narrowband
users decreased 3% over the same period.
Leading Internet Service Providers Worldwide Feb 2002 (Source: WebSideStory)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Provider Comments
AOL 13.58% (down 2% from early 1999;
share fluctuates between 16% & 18% during weekends)
Road Runner 2.76% (replaced @Home, which had a 4.5% share in June 2001)
UUNet 2.18%
Sypatico 1.04%
Mindspring 0.79%
T-Online 0.61%
Insight Research projects that North American cable modem and DSL service
providers will represent 84% of the broadband access market in 2007 and
that service revenues from residential and SME customers will total $37
billion. However, the firm reports that telcos will spend $4.8 billion from
2001 to 2007 on network infrastructure, while cable companies will only
spend $661 million on network upgrades over the same period.
In Western Europe, broadband is expected to serve more than 31 million
subscribers and shall achieve a 20% penetrate rate by 2006, according to
the Yankee Group. The firm projects the value of the broadband access
market to reach $9.4 billion, with ADSL providers taking 80% of the
revenues.
Findings from Insight Research are from the firm's market study entitled
Broadband Access: DSL vs Cable Modems 2002-2007. The study forecasts demand
for broadband access including service provider and equipment revenues
segmented by North America and the rest of the world. The 100-page report
goes for $4,195.
Data provided by TRI is from the firm's quarterly online access market
tracking service known as Online Census. An annual subscription runs $149.
Projections by the Yankee Group are from the company's study, European
Residential Broadband Takes Off. The report provides forecasts for
consumer broadband services in 15 western European markets.
Findings from IGI are from Lightwave Post 9-11, a study that argues that
high-speed access growth will pull us out of the current recession.
Data from WebSideStory is provided from the firm's StatMarket subscription
service, which tracks a wide array of Internet usage market data.
Other data for this story has been taken from recently published statements
from Salomon Smith Barney and Jupiter Media Metrix.
IGI Group
http://www.igigroup.com
Yankee Group
http://www.yankeegroup.com
Telecommunications Reports International
http://www.tr.com
WebSideStory
http://www.websidestory.com
Nielsen/NetRatings
http://www.netratings.com
Insight Research
http://www.insight-corp.com
FCC
http://www.fcc.gov
Point Topic
http://www.point-topic.com
Salomon Smith Barney
http://www.salomonsmithbarney.com
Jupiter Media Metrix
http://www.jupitermediametrix.com
2. Open Access Update
AOL and EarthLink have launched their respective access services over Time
Warner's systems in Binghampton (210,000 HHP) and Indianapolis (249,000
HHP).
United Online (NetZero and Juno merger) will offer access services over
Comcast's systems. Initially, United will offer data services in Nashville
and Indianapolis. United services 5.6 million dialup users including 1.46
million billable subs. In Nashville and Indianapolis, Comcast currently
serves 77,000 cable modem subs.
The FTC has approved AOL's application to allow Big Net Holdings to offer
data services over AOL/TW's cable systems nationwide and to allow Digital
Communications Networks to offer services in Los Angeles; West Central Ohio
LLC in Columbus, Cincinnati, and western and northeast Ohio; LocalNet in
upstate New York; and Global Systems in North Carolina and parts of South
Carolina.
AOL
http://www.aol.com
AOL/Time Warner
http://www.timewarner.com
United Online
http://www.unitedonline.net
EarthLink
http://www.earthlink.net
3. U.S. House Passes Bill Deregulating Bells
The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the Tauzin-Dingell bill, a
bill that removes restrictions placed on regional phones companies by the
Telecommunications Act of 1996. Specifically, Bells would no longer be
required to get approval from regulators before offering long distance data
or high speed access services. Further, it would allow them to deny
competitors access to fiber portions of their DSL networks.
Before becoming a law, the bill must be approved by the Senate, which is
very unlikely.
4. Comcast Migrates @Home Subs; Ceases Web Tracking
Last week, Comcast moved its last block of subscribers from the @Home
network to its own network. During the transition, Comcast's email servers
went down causing users to be without email for more than 24 hours. The
outage added further damage to the MSO's reputation, which took a hit
following news that the company had been tracking aggregate surfing
patterns of its users. The practice, launched around the first of the
year, was to be used for establishing caches. However, Comcast had the
data to create individual use logs. Due to consumer complaints, tracking
was discontinued last month.
Comcast
http://www.comcast.com
5. Coresma Introduces USB DOCSIS 1.0 Cable Modem
Coresma has announced the availability of Phazer, a DOCSIS 1.0 certified
cable modem with a USB and Ethernet interface. The modem features remote
SNMP, support of up to 15 network clients, and front panel LED status
indicators.
Coresma
http://www.coresma.com
6. Sunrise Adds Modules to Networking Testing Solution
Sunrise Telecom has introduced new test modules for its CM1000 CATV Network
Analyzer to support both 6 MHz and 8 MHz systems. The new technology
allows dual bandwidth testing of DOCSIS and EuroDOCSIS systems, digital
video testing, and analog signal level measurements in a single test.
Sunrise has also enhanced its signal level meter to support PAL and NTSC.
With the new release, the meter can make critical analog signal level
measurements including a 1,2 or 5 channel display and full spectrum scan,
tilt, peak to valley, A/V ratio and adjacent channel ration. All test
results are compared against user programmable criteria for immediate
verification of non-compliance. A sub band feature offers meter sub-band
tuning along with a spectral display. The user can view or measure
upstream TDMA signals, bursty ingress, noise, and CPD. It measures the
level of all common carriers including NTSC/PAL or H-sync suppressed
scrambling, QPSK, 16 QAM, 256 QAM, AM, FM, and CW. Twelve international and
three user programmable channel plans are provided.
Sunrise Telecom
http://www.sunrisetelecom.com
7. Com21 Developing CMTS with Broadcom's Propane
Com21 has said that it will integrate Broadcom's Propane software into its
DOXcontroller XB CMTS. The accelerator software expands usable upstream
capacity by 300%. Com21 is the first vendor to use Propane.
The DOXcontroller XB is scheduled to enter CableLabs' qualification wave in
July.
Com21
http://www.com21.com
8. Gateway to Sell Charter's Cable Modem Service
Gatgeway stores will demonstrate, provide availability information, and sell
Charter's cable modem service at 30 stores nationwide.
Charter
http://www.chartercomm.com
Gateway
http://www.gateway.com
9. Terayon Extends Supplier Agreement with i-Cable
Terayon has extended its agreement for two more years with i-Cable to be
the exclusive equipment vendor for the cable operator's system in Hong
Kong. Terayon is supplying the provider with BW 3000 headends and TJ 615
DOCSIS cable modems.
i-Cable currently serves 160,000 cable modem subs.
Terayon
http://www.terayon.com
i-Cable
http://www.i-cable.com
10. San Bruno Cable Using Core's Provisioning OSS
San Bruno Cable, a system owned and operated by the City of San Bruno,
California, has deployed Core Networks' CoreOS system for managing and
provisioning subscribers. The former @Home and ISP Channel affiliate
passes 15,000 homes.
Core Networks
http://www.corenetworks.com
11. AT&T to Break Even on Cable Telephony This Quarter
AT&T Broadband has announced that its cable telephony services will break
even this quarter, about nine months ahead of its original projection. The
provider's average revenue per unit totaled $55 at the end of 2001, far
above expectations. Capital expenditure per customer was reported as $650,
far less than expected.
AT&T plans to expand its services once its systems are upgraded. The
company expects more than 70% of its systems to be ready by the end of this
year, up from 62% at the end of 2001.
AT&T Broadband
http://www.attbroadband.com
12. Cable-Modems.Org Publishes Article on Uncapping
Rolf V. Ostergaard of Cable-Modems.Org has recently published an article on
uncapping that reveals methods used by subscribers to expand cable modem
service bandwidth caps and methods used by cable ISPs to prevent the
practices.
Uncapping Article
http://www.cable-modems.org/articles/uncapping
Cable-Modems.Org
http://www.cable-modems.org
13. Conway Deploying Mtorola's CMTS in Arkansas
Conway Corporation, a utility and cable operator serving Conway, Arkansas,
has deployed Motorola's BSR 64000 to support data services.
Motorola
http://www.mot.com/broadband
14. Shaw & Rogers Launch Low Bandwidth Service Options
Shaw and Rogers have simultaneously launched their own respective low
bandwidth cable modem service options. The Shaw service, known as
Lite-Speed, includes up to 128 Kbps down and 64 Kbps upstream connectivity,
10 MB of web space, one email, and cable modem rental for $29.95 per month.
Installation is $49.95. As a promotional offer, current Shaw video subs
can get the service for $24.95 per month. Free installation is available
for customers that sign up through the provider's web site. Rogers'
service, dubbed Internet Lite, includes up to 128 Kbps down and 64 Kbps
upstream connectivity, one email, and cable modem rental for $24.95 per
month. Installation goes for $49.95.
Shaw
http://www.shaw.ca
Rogers
http://www.rogers.com
15. Charter Ends 2001 with 645,000 Cable Modem Subs
Charter has reported ending 2001 with nearly 645,000 cable modem subs,
adding around 100,000 in Q'4. Services passed 7,560,600 homes. Charter
expects to end 2002 with between 550,000 and 600,000 subs.
Charter
http://www.chartercomm.com
16. Cablecom Introduces DOCSIS 1.1 Mgmt & Provisioning
Cablecom Solutions has said that its DOXcentral NMS system now support
DOCSIS 1.1 systems. DOXcentral includes broadband provisioning, network
monitoring, bandwidth management, cable modem management, and subscriber
self provisioning.
Cablecom Solutions
http://www.cablecomsolutions.com
© Copyright 2000 Gecko Research & Publishing
The Broadband Bob Report is a weekly take of the latest news regarding data over cable, 2-way HFC networks and related applications and services.
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