Stats / Projections


For a listing of stats on cable modem service providers, click here.


Allied Business
  • Global data over cable subscriber penetration will increase from 3.3 million subs last year (1999)
    to 58.6 million subs in 2005, with the U.S. gaining the most momentum, forecast to expand from
    2.1 million subs to 14 million.


    Andrew Prophet Research & Consulting

  • By 2000, North American installed base of 1 million cable modems.


    Cahners In-Stat
  • Approximately 9 percent of U.S. household are currently using some form of broadband Internet
    access service, with DSL and cable being the two most common forms.
  • The number of cable modem and DSL subs will increase 77 percent between 1999 and 2004, with
    service revenues growing from $1 billion last year to $13.3 billion in 2004.
  • Sixty-five percent of broadband consumers are between the ages of 25 to 44 and have a four year
    degree, 40 percent are single and 50 percent have an annual household income of at least $50K
  • Worldwide digital modem shipments exceeded 3.6 million in 1999, with cable modem
    shipments maintaining a 25% sequential growth rate
  • Cahners estimated the year-end cable modem market share for 1999 to be: Motorola: 35%;
    Terayon: 12.5%; Com21: 11.1%; Nortel: 10.1%
  • 19% of all cable modems shipped in the second quarter (1999) were DOCSIS.


    Computer Economics
  • Cable modem use will grow from 5.7 million installed systems in 2000 to 27.6 million
    systems in 2005.
  • Between 2000 and 2005, the installed base of DSL lines to increase from 2.4 million to
    13.8 million.


    Comsys
  • The demand for broadband connectivity from 100 million (14 million U.S.) SMEs and
    600 million households by 2010.
  • Asia will experience twice the demand of the U.S.
  • The value of the global broadband market will exceed $580 billion over the next 10 years
    (through 2010.)


    DataMonitor
    European Forecasts

  • Currently (1997) 3 million European homes have online enabled PCs
  • By 2000, over 8 million European homes will be passed by
    broadband interactive services
  • By 2000, over 30 million European homes will have on-line enabled
    PCs
  • By the end of 2000, 9,800,000 European homes will be equiped
    with digital set top boxes


    DataQuest
  • In the second quarter of 2000, DOCSIS modems accounted for 68% of worldwide cable modem
    shipments; proprietary modems represented 31% of shipments, and DVB/DAVIC modems took
    a 0.4% share.
  • DataQuest projects a 40% increase in shipments in Q'3, and a 45% increase for Q'4, bringing total
    worldwide shipments to 10 million by the end of the year 2000.
  • Cable modem shipments by vendor:
    Cable Modem Shipment Estimates for Q'2
    Company Shipments Market Share %
    Motorola 650,000 32.5%
    Terayon 271,000 13.6%
    3Com 254,000 12.7%
    Com21 184,000 9.2%
    Toshiba 150,000 7.5%
    Others 490,000 24.5%
    Total Market: 1,999,000


  • The market will reach six million subs this (2000) year, and increase to more than 28 million by
    2004, with cable modem subs forecast to grow from 3.3 million to 14 million, and DSL subs
    to increase from 1.4 million to 9.8 million.

    Q'1 2000 Market Share
    Vendor Shipments Market
    Share %
    Motorola 490,000 33.2
    Terayon 173,000 11.7
    Com21 154,000 10.4
    Samsung 125,000 8.5
    Toshiba 122,000 8.3
    Others 412,000 27.9
    Total 1,476,000 100



    FCC
  • Nearly half of all Internet connections in the U.S. will be high-speed broadband by 2004
  • The DSL sub base will grow to 10.1 million by the end of 2002, whereas the cable modem sub
    base will be around 9.1 million.


    Forrester

  • 25% (16 million) or of all online households in the U.S. will have
    high-speed connectivity to the Internet by 2002
  • Cable data service subscriptions will grow from 350,000 in
    mid-1998 to more than 2 million by 2000
  • Cable data subscriptions will grow to 13.6 million by 2002, (80% of
    the residential broadband market)


    Forward Concepts

  • By 2000, 4 million cable modems will have been shipped
  • Modem prices will fall to $209 by 2001, and hardware revenues for
    the modem vendor will peak at $1.38 billion by 1999
  • By 2000: Global installed base of 16 million cable modems.


    Harris Interactive
  • The number of U.S. broadband households grew 41% between April 2000 and January 2001,
    reaching 5 million connections.


    Infonetics Research

  • 16 million DSL and cable CPE units shipped worldwide in 2000
  • DSL CPE revenues totaled nearly $2.2 billion in 2000 and will reach over $3 billion in 2001
  • In 2000, over 6.9 million cable modems and routers were shipped, totaling almost
    $1.5 billion in revenues.
  • Worldwide DSL revenue grew 15% in Q'4 2000
  • Worldwide cable CPE revenue grew 6% in Q'4 2000


    Insight Research
  • Cable modems are leading the residential broadband market with nearly twice as
    many subs as competing DSL services.
  • By the end of 2000, Insight projects that the U.S. installed base of cable modems will reach
    2 million, compared with an IB of 1.1 million DSL lines for the same period.
  • Cable will dominate the residential broadband market for the next until 2002-2003.
  • As of April 2000, 65% of small to medium businesses have connections to the Internet,
    with 11% of those connected via broadband (DSL and cable modems have nearly
    equal penetration among these businesses.)
  • By 2002, the firm projects that 30% of these businesses will have a high-speed connection.


    International Data Corporation (IDC)

  • Total revenues from cable modem shipments to increase from $33 million in 1998 to nearly
    $550 million in 2003.
  • U.S. installed base of cable modems will exceed 1.3 million by the end of the year.
  • By 2003, the firm projects that the U.S. IB will grow to around 9 million.
  • In 2003, DSL will overtake cable modems in market share.
  • Cable modem service revenues will rise from $421.9 million in 1999 to $26 billion by 2003.


    Jupiter Communications

  • By 2002, data over cable will control 12% of the consumer Internet
    access market
  • The high-speed access market will flatten as a $8 billion market


    Kinetic Strategies

  • 8.2% (9.3 million) of households in North America (U.S.: 7.6 million; Canada: 1.7 million)
    subscribe to a broadband Internet service.
  • 6.4 million U.S. and Canadian homes subscribe to a cable modem service versus 2.9 million
    DSL subs
  • An average 75,852 new cable modem subs are added each week versus 43,088 new DSL subs
  • DSL gave up market share in Q'1 due to price hikes by SBC and EarthLink and the shutdown
    of Northpoint.


    Myers
    Cable Modem Subs/Penetration %
    2000: 3.2 million / 3.1%
    2001: 6.2 million / 5.9%
    2002: 12.6 million / 12.0%
    2003: 18.0 million / 16.3%


    Digital Cable Video Subs / Penetration %
    2000: 9.8 million / 9.5%
    2001: 18 million / 17.3%
    2002: 26.4 million / 25.0%
    2003: 35.4 million / 33.2%



    Pinoneer Consulting
    Global Cable Modem Market for Residential Users, 1998-2007 (Millions)
    Year North
    America     		Europe Asia LA Africa Total
    /ROW
    Subscribers    		 Total
    Service
    Equipment    		 Total
    Revenues
    1998 0.35 0.15 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.56 $269 $448.0
    1999 0.79 0.45 0.16 0.10 0.00 1.50 $720 $658.0
    2000 1.93 1.13 0.72 0.40 0.01 4.18 $2,008 $1,606.5
    2001 3.09 2.53 1.88 0.90 0.01 8.41 $3,364 $2,532.5
    2002 4.63 4.43 2.82 1.58 0.01 13.47 $5,388 $2,528.5
    2003 6.16 6.64 4.23 2.52 0.04 19.59 $7,841 $2,439.2
    2004 7.45 8.84 6.35 3.53 0.10 26.26 $10,512 $2,643.7
    2005 8.64 11.05 8.88 4.76 0.15 33.49 $12,074 $2,806.4
    2006 9.77 12.70 11.10 6.10 0.25 39.92 $14,402 $2,478.6
    2007 10.74 13.97 12.77 7.50 0.44 45.43 $16,406 $2,084.4


    Statistical Research
    The following information is based on 1500 interviewswith randomly selected people.

  • There are 55.1 million online households in the U.S. (approximately 50% penetration)
  • 9% (9.4 million) of U.S. homes have either a cable, DSL or DirectPC connection to the Internet, a
    near 100% increase over the last six months.
  • 6.6 million homes subscribe to a cable modem service, 2.8 million to DSL. DirectPC has a
    negligible market share.
  • Among households with incomes above $50,000, broadband penetration is 16%; for households
    with incomes from $30,000 to $49,000, penetration is 4%; and for households reporting income less
    than $30,000, the penetration is 3%.
  • Broadband users are 50% more likely to make online purchases than dialup users

    Strategis Group
    Worldwide

  • By 2003: Global installed base of 8 million cable modems
  • 36 million consumers will have broadband connectivity in 2005.
  • Cable modem service will pass 20 million homes by the end of 2001
  • In 5 years (2003), the cable modem penetration rate will grow
    to 25%
  • Residential High-Speed Households 1999-2005 (millions)
    1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
    Cable 1.25 4.11 7.12 9.57 11.88 14.19 16.13
    DSL .58 1.93 4.22 6.88 9.38 11.87 14.22
    Wireless .01 .06 .19 .95 1.96 3.04 4.71
    Other 0 .01 .1 .15 .3 .5 .8
  • Estimated number of total cable modem subscribers:
    1997$72 million
    1998 420,000
    1999 1,237,717
    2000 2,681,721
    2001 4,344,388
    2002 6,255,919
    2003 8,257,813
  • Annual data subscription revenues for the next 5 years will be:
    1997$72 million
    1998$371 million
    1999$1.1 billion
    2000$2.1 billion
    2001$3.7 billion
  • New Technology Subscribers, 1997-2003
    1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
    Digital set-top subscribers* 0.7 2.3 4.1 7.2 10.9 14.1 17.7
    Cable modem subscribers* 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.7 4.5 6.3 8.2
    *in millions


  • Estimated installed base of cable modems in Latin America:
    19987000
    199954,000
    2000190,000
    2001400,000
    2002750,000
    20031,260,000
  • 40 million homes will subscribe to an Internet service by 2001
  • 17 million homes currently (1997) subscribe to an Internet or
    online service
  • Demand for high speed connectivity would increase 85% if data
    providers cut monthly costs to $25 a month
  • Current (1997) Internet homes spend an average of 6 hours a week
    online, including 4 hours on the world wide web
  • 4/5 of the world's 2-way cable modem subs are in North America
  • 1998 global installed based exceeded 1 million units (U.S.: 538,000; Canada: 190,000)
  • Global two way cable modem shipments reached 955,000 in 1998
  • Cable modem service was available in about 15 countries in 1998
  • Global installed base to exceed 7 million in 2001 (U.S.: 3.5 million; Canada: 600,000)
  • 19% of 1998 shipments went to Canada
  • The Netherlands and Japan represented 5% or more of shipments in 1998
  • Average wholesale cost of a two way cable modem in 1998 was $300
  • Projected average wholesale cost of a two cable modem in 1999 is $270
  • 1998 shipments were valued at $286 million
  • In 1999, Motorola is shipping nearly one-third of the world's cable modems.
  • About 22% of two cable modem shipped in the first half of '99 were DOCSIS comp.
  • Com21 has a 8% share and Terayon has 7%
  • Motorola and Nortel represented 80% of the North American market share in 1998
  • Nortel was the market leader in Latin America and Europe in 1998
  • Terayon was the leader in the Asia/Pacific Rim sector in 1998


    Telecommunications Reports International

    Online Growth By Category (2000)
    Category SubsGrowth During Q'4
    Paid Dialup 46,097,054 9.15%
    Free ISPs 14,850,000 1.36%
    Cable Modems 4,178,550 19.21%
    Internet TV 1,200,000 5.00%
    DSL 2,357,500 86.47%
    Total 68,683,104 8.59%



    The Yankee Group

  • U.S. market for residential high-speed Internet services will grow from 1.4 million in 1999
    (80% cable modems) to 3.3 million subs this year, reaching 16.6 million subs by 200
  • Over the next five years, cable modems will represent only 42% of the total installed base
    of high speed access subscribers at the end of 2004.
  • About 41% of all U.S. households will have access to a cable modem service by the end
    of 2000, compared to 24% for DSL.
  • Slightly less than 65% of PC-owning households were found to be interested in high-speed
    access, with 40% willing to pay $40 per month for the service.
  • Households that have been online for three years or more were nearly twice as will to pay
    for high-speed access as those online for less than one year.


    CATV CyberLab (Home)